Robinhood in talks with Crypto.com as prediction-market competition intensifies

The race to dominate prediction markets just got more interesting.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Robinhood is in discussions with Crypto.com about integrating the exchange’s event contracts into its prediction-markets hub. If the talks succeed, Robinhood users could soon trade Crypto.com’s yes-or-no contracts without leaving the familiar Robinhood app.

This isn’t just another partnership announcement. It signals how quickly the prediction-markets space is maturing—and how fiercely companies are fighting for a piece of it.

A Market Growing Too Fast to Ignore

Prediction markets have shifted from niche curiosity to serious revenue driver. Traders now bet on everything from Federal Reserve rate decisions and election outcomes to sports results and economic data releases. Global notional volume has surged, and analysts see the category expanding dramatically over the next few years.

Bernstein recently raised its price target on Robinhood to $160, projecting that the company’s prediction-market revenue could hit roughly $1.7 billion by 2028. Some forecasts even suggest these markets could overtake crypto trading as a revenue source for Robinhood as early as the second quarter of 2026.

That kind of growth attracts serious attention—and serious competition.

Why Robinhood Wants Another Supplier

Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets Hub in March 2025, initially relying heavily on Kalshi. It later added ForecastEx and began routing volume through Rothera, the CFTC-licensed exchange it co-owns with Susquehanna International Group.

The strategy has been clear: build a multi-exchange network rather than depend on a single provider. A company spokesperson reinforced this approach, stating that Robinhood intends to continue partnering with multiple exchanges to offer customers broader and more reliable access.

Adding Crypto.com would further diversify that network. It would give Robinhood another source of contracts, improve product availability during high-demand periods, and reduce operational risk if one exchange faces technical issues or limited market coverage.

Crypto.com’s Expanding Ambitions

Crypto.com has been aggressive in the same space. It already operates prediction markets through its CFTC-regulated Crypto.com Derivatives North America affiliate and launched a standalone platform called OG Prediction Markets in February 2026. The company has also expanded distribution through partners such as FanDuel Predicts and has floated a potential integration with Truth Social (though that product had not launched as of late July).

A deal with Robinhood would give Crypto.com access to tens of millions of retail investors already active on one of the most popular trading platforms in the United States. For a company still building its prediction-markets brand, that kind of distribution is highly valuable.

The Competitive Tension with Kalshi

The talks arrive at a delicate moment in Robinhood’s relationship with Kalshi. What began as a distribution partnership has evolved into something more complicated. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has openly described Robinhood as both a partner and a competitor, noting that the two will ultimately compete on product quality.

By adding Crypto.com (and continuing to grow Rothera), Robinhood is reducing its dependence on any single exchange—including Kalshi. That shift could reshape bargaining power and product strategy across the industry.

Regulatory Clouds Haven’t Cleared

Any expansion still faces regulatory uncertainty. The CFTC maintains that it has exclusive authority over commodity derivatives traded on registered exchanges. Several states, however, argue that certain sports-related contracts resemble gambling and should fall under state licensing and consumer-protection rules.

Lawsuits and enforcement actions have already emerged in places like Wisconsin and New York. The resulting patchwork of rules creates complexity for platforms trying to offer consistent products nationwide. Any Robinhood-Crypto.com arrangement would need to navigate this unresolved federal-state tension.

What Comes Next

No deal has been finalized, and talks can always fall apart. Even if an agreement is reached, the real test will be execution: how seamlessly the contracts appear in the Robinhood app, how competitive the fees and liquidity are, and whether users actually engage with the new offerings.

What’s clear is the broader direction. Prediction markets are no longer a side experiment. They are becoming a core battleground for brokers, crypto exchanges, and specialized platforms. Companies that can combine distribution, regulatory compliance, and strong product design stand to capture significant value as the category scales.

Robinhood’s reported outreach to Crypto.com is one more signal that the competition is intensifying. In a market moving this quickly, standing still is not an option.